The odds compilers have spoken out of the new campaign underway across Canada.
As per Gambling.com, the Liberals are predicted to win the general election but a majority is not guaranteed.
“Liberal backing in the polls is also being reflected in the Canadian politics betting odds that launched just hours after Trudeau’s snap election announcement,” said political betting expert Joe Short.
The website’s odds suggest the Liberals have a 95% chance of winning, at odds of -2000. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are +900 (10%), whereas the New Democrats and Bloc Québécois are +10000 and +15000 respectively.
“The sheer disparity in the odds between the two leading parties highlights just how confident politics betting sites are in the Liberals retaining power,” Short said.
The site appears to show that anything other than a victory for the Liberals would be a major upset, particularly considering the Liberals triggered the election on their own, leaving other parties describing it “unnecessary” and “selfish”.
The odds compilers also claim the big concern for Trudeau is whether he can transform his previous minority government into a majority.
Betting websites are not as convinced the ruling party can sufficiently boost their seat total in Parliament to the 170 threshold to have a majority.
“Right now, then, it is effectively a coin toss between the Liberals taking control of the Commons, and Canada reverting back to square one,” Short said.
Many polls thus far in the 36-day campaign have shown the Liberals with a lead.
ODDS TO WIN ELECTION 2021
- Liberals: -2000 (95% implied probability of winning).
- Conservatives: +900 (10%).
- New Democrats: +10000 (1%).
- Bloc Québécois: +15000 (0.7%).elections ca
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
- Liberal majority: -125 (55.6% implied probability).
- No majority: -110 (52.4%).